Malawi’s growing vulnerability to climate-related shocks could deepen poverty among the country’s vulnerable population, a World Bank report shows.
However, World Bank and government officials believe a revamped social protection programme could provide a critical lifeline.
Speaking in Lilongwe on Thursday during the launch of the July 2024 issue of the Malawi Economic Monitor (MEM) report, Minister of Gender, Community and Social Welfare Jean Sendeza said the economic information presented in the report will help the government enhance its social protection measures.
shocks is worrying
She said developing effective and adaptive social protection programmes will help the government provide protection to people who were affected by climate and weather related shocks.
“Malawi’s vulnerability to climate-related shocks is real,” said Sendeza. “We have been affected by [cyclone] Freddy and Idai, among others, which disproportionately affect the poor. We need to find sustainable strategies to protect these people.”
In the report, the World Bank notes that poverty rates remain stubbornly high with 71.9 percent of the population living below the international poverty line, according to data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad).
The 19th edition of the biennial publication shows that Malawi’s vulnerability to erratic weather patterns caused by climate change, including dry spells, exposed millions of people to poverty.
Data collected by the Brettonwoods institutions between 1980 and 2014 showed that there was a strong correlation between dry spells and increased poverty levels.
“For every three Malawians that escaped poverty between 2010 and 2019, four fell into poverty due to weather-related shocks,” states the World Bank.
The trend persists. In the 2024/25 growing season alone, erratic weather patterns caused by Cyclone Freddy and El Nino plunged at least 4.4 million people into food insecurity. The Bretton Woods institution expects the figure to rise to 5.7 million during the lean season in 2024/25.
The report notes that such statistics underscore the precarious existence of millions and the urgent need for effective safety nets.
World Bank senior social protection specialist Chipo Msowoya, one of the lead authors of the report, said in a presentation that World Bank research suggests that social protection could provide critical lifeline.
Evidence from the past two decades demonstrates their pivotal role in shielding households from the ravages of economic hardship and climate shocks.
According to the bank’s assessment, the social Cash Transfer Programme (SCTP) contributed to a 23 percent increase in food production and improved health-seeking behaviour among beneficiaries, making it one of the top performers across 14 African countries in terms of impact on equity, resilience, and long-term opportunities.
While noting the benefits, World Bank country director for Malawi, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe Nathan Belete cautioned that the frequency and intensity of climate shocks, coupled with macroeconomic vulnerabilities, demand an even more robust and adaptive social protection system.
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