Mining could earn Malawi $43bn by 2040

By Kingsley Jassi:

The World Bank projects that Malawi’s mining sector could generate up to $43 billion in export earnings between 2025 and 2040, with annual revenue potentially reaching $3 billion within a decade.

This is contained in the Bank’s 20th Malawi Economic Monitor (MEM) released on Thursday.

However, the bank’s senior mining specialist Martin Lokanc warned Malawians to manage expectations, citing the Kayerekera Uranium Mine’s closure in 2014 following market shocks as a cautionary tale.

The MEM further shows that even in a base case scenario, the country could earn $30 billion between 2026 and 2040 while urging the authorities to strengthen regulatory and sector management capabilities.

“Decisions made now will determine whether Malawi’s mining sector achieves its full potential. There is a need for proper management of mining revenues and public services,” the report reads.

Lokanc advised the government to develop expertise in monitoring mining operations, warning that companies often find ways to avoid paying dividends to free-equity holders.

The report highlights investors’ growing caution toward large projects in countries with weak institutions and unpredictable regulations, emphasising the need for clear legal frameworks and transparent decision-making processes.

The bank recommends fast-tracking the Mpatamanga Hydropower project to generate 1,500 megawatts of electricity needed for energy-intensive mining operations, alongside railway infrastructure development.

Sovereign Metals Services Country Manager Maxwell Kazako says mining companies face unrealistic expectations from stakeholders.

He hopes that projects will immediately solve Malawi’s economic challenges.

Former governor of the Reserve Bank of Malawi Elias Ngalande suggests establishing a sovereign fund to increase local ownership in mining projects and reduce foreign dominance.

Ministry of Mining Principal Secretary Joseph Mkandawire says four major projects are advancing, with Kayerekera Uranium Mine expected to resume operations by June, while construction at Kangankunde, Makanjira and Songwe Hill mines is expected to start between May and June.

The World Bank notes that the projections are preliminary, with ongoing work to evaluate infrastructure needs and industrial diversification opportunities