As Malawi prepares for its crucial September elections, the political landscape is being shaped by three dominant figures—President Lazarus Chakwera, former President Peter Mutharika, and Vice President Michael Usi. While each has his own distinct vision for the country’s future, a deeper dive into the dynamics of this race reveals a political chess game where Usi’s position as the kingmaker could decide the outcome. This analysis critically examines the key players and their prospects, highlighting the risks, opportunities, and possible pitfalls.
Lazarus Chakwera: The Burden of Incumbency
Chakwera’s presidency, marked by the promise of transformation, has been defined by its early successes and subsequent disappointments. Upon assuming power in 2020, Chakwera led a coalition of opposition parties, primarily the Tonse Alliance, with the promise of tackling economic stagnation, unemployment, and corruption. However, the reality has been far from the hopeful narrative of his initial rise.
Economic indicators have deteriorated under his leadership. Inflation has surged, reaching levels above 20%, while unemployment remains a significant issue, especially among the youth, who were once Chakwera’s primary base of support. The 2023 World Bank report indicated that Malawi’s GDP growth fell short of expectations, growing by only 3.5% compared to the projected 5.1%. Chakwera’s failure to address these economic challenges effectively has led to disenchantment among Malawians, and cracks within the Tonse Alliance further deepen his vulnerabilities.
His greatest asset, however, remains the incumbency advantage—control over state resources, media access, and diplomatic relations. But these advantages are not enough to mask the growing discontent. With most of his alliance partners gone, Chakwera’s path to victory relies heavily on rebuilding the fractured coalition.
In this context, Michael Usi becomes pivotal. Usi’s influence, particularly among the youth and rural communities, could reinvigorate Chakwera’s campaign and bring back the enthusiasm that characterized his initial rise. If Usi chooses to align with Chakwera, this could provide the coalition with the strength needed to hold on to power. However, that is a big “if,” and there is no guarantee that Usi will be willing to back the incumbent.
Peter Mutharika: The Struggle for Redemption
For Peter Mutharika, this election is not just a political contest—it is an existential struggle to salvage his reputation and legacy. Mutharika, who was ousted in 2020 after a disputed election result, has consistently framed his removal as a mistake, arguing that his tenure was marked by economic growth and development.
Yet, this narrative is increasingly hard to sell. According to the Malawi Economic Monitoring Report (2022), Mutharika’s administration struggled to sustain the economic growth rates needed to reduce poverty. His government was also criticized for its failure to address widespread corruption, which tainted his administration’s image. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) under Mutharika’s leadership is also seen by many as a party of the past, unable to shake off its association with political elitism and entrenched power.
Despite these challenges, Mutharika retains significant support in the Southern Region, particularly in areas where his family has deep political ties. However, his inability to gain traction in the Central and Northern regions remains a formidable hurdle. This is where Michael Usi’s role becomes crucial. Usi’s appeal among the urban electorate and his ability to connect with both the youth and rural populations could allow Mutharika to break into previously hostile territories.
If Mutharika can secure Usi’s backing, he could win over crucial undecided voters and broaden his support base, making him a stronger contender for the presidency. Yet, his inability to shift away from the baggage of the past—exemplified by his 2020 loss—leaves him at a significant disadvantage, even with Usi’s endorsement.
Michael Usi: The New Kingmaker
Michael Usi’s political trajectory in Malawi has been nothing short of meteoric. Though he has not emerged as a presidential contender himself, his strategic positioning in the 2025 elections has made him one of the most influential figures. Unlike Chakwera and Mutharika, Usi has managed to cultivate a personal brand that resonates with the electorate. His appeal cuts across both urban and rural lines, making him a valuable asset for any presidential hopeful.
Despite his relative lack of experience in high-level governance, Usi has gained significant traction by positioning himself as a man of the people, in touch with the realities of the Malawian populace. His focus on youth empowerment, economic development, and distributing relief materials has resonated with a large portion of the electorate, particularly younger voters who feel disconnected from the older political establishment.
Much like Saulos Chilima before him, Usi’s role in this election is not to win the presidency outright, but to wield enough influence to tip the scales in favor of one of the leading contenders. His political value is rooted in his ability to deliver the youth vote, which remains a crucial demographic in Malawi’s evolving political landscape. Usi’s endorsement will likely be the key to securing victory, as neither Chakwera nor Mutharika commands an overwhelming support base.
The strategic importance of Usi’s backing cannot be overstated. Both Chakwera and Mutharika need him to mobilize the critical votes from undecided voters, youth, and rural communities. Without his support, neither candidate can confidently claim the presidency.
The Political Minions: Loud, But Without Impact
While the media spotlight has been squarely on Chakwera, Mutharika, and Usi, there are other figures who, despite their noise and high-profile rhetoric, lack the political capital to make a real impact on the outcome of the election. Individuals like Atupele Muluzi, Joyce Banda, Dalitso Kabambe, and Enoch Chihana may continue to command attention in the political sphere, but they remain largely irrelevant in the race for Malawi’s highest office.
Atupele Muluzi, despite his name recognition as the son of former president Bakili Muluzi, has failed to forge a meaningful connection with the electorate. His attempts to position himself as a fresh alternative have been undercut by his failure to distance himself from the failures of his father’s administration, which was widely seen as corrupt and inefficient. Muluzi’s political capital remains confined to his family’s base, and this is not enough to mount a serious presidential challenge.
Similarly, Joyce Banda, a former president, has consistently attempted to re-enter the political fray but has struggled to rebuild her support base after leaving office in 2014. Her tenure was marred by the “Cashgate” scandal, which remains a significant blot on her record. Banda’s attempts to rekindle her political career have been characterized by a series of ill-advised alliances and the failure to offer a compelling alternative to the current leadership. She remains a fading force, unable to gain the traction she once had.
Dalitso Kabambe, who briefly served as Reserve Bank governor, is another individual making noise without much substance. Kabambe has tried to capitalize on his technical expertise, positioning himself as a new economic leader, but he lacks the political infrastructure and the grassroots support to translate his knowledge into actual political power. His candidacy seems more like an academic exercise than a genuine presidential bid.
Enoch Chihana, leader of the Alliance for Democracy (AFORD), similarly lacks the political clout necessary to lead Malawi. His regional base in the Northern Region is too narrow to secure him the presidency, and his party has been plagued by internal divisions. While he may be vocal in his criticism of the status quo, Chihana’s ability to mobilize a national movement is severely limited.
In short, these individuals are nothing more than political minions—loud, opinionated, but lacking the vision, leadership, and support to mount a serious challenge for the presidency. Their noise is unlikely to have any real impact on the outcome of the election, and they are destined to remain on the political fringes, unable to redefine the national discourse in any meaningful way.
Conclusion: A Race Defined by Alliances, Not Ideology
The September elections in Malawi are shaping up to be less about policy differences and more about personal alliances. While Chakwera and Mutharika offer competing visions for the future, their ability to secure Michael Usi’s endorsement will likely determine the outcome. Usi, with his grassroots appeal, has ascended to the role of kingmaker—capable of determining the fate of Malawi’s political future.
Both Chakwera and Mutharika have weaknesses that could cost them the presidency. Chakwera’s incumbency is weighed down by a poor economic record, while Mutharika’s past is marred by corruption allegations and regional divisions. Usi, in contrast, offers a fresh face and a new hope for many voters, but his power lies not in his ability to lead, but in his ability to decide who will lead.
Ultimately, the September elections may not be decided by policy proposals or historical legacies but by the deftness with which Chakwera and Mutharika navigate the volatile political terrain of alliances. Whoever secures Usi’s support will likely walk away with the presidency. The battle for Malawi’s future is now firmly in the hands of the kingmaker, while political minions like Muluzi, Banda, Kabambe, and Chihana continue to waste their energy on fruitless campaigns that won’t amount to anything significant.
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