I am shocked that DPP has dismissed Emran Ntenje as the party’s Regional Governor for the Eastern Region. This is one of the worst strategic blunders that DPP has made so far, as the party stubbornly and arrogantly persists on the path to defeat next year.
Ntenje has been appointed advisor to the party president. But this is a passive position that DPP has, of late, been assigning to those that the party is punishing, just like they did with Nankhumwa and Jeffrey.
Being from the East, Ntenje likely backed Bright Msaka when various aspirants emerged during the leadership succession struggle in the party. But though Ntenje publicly supported the APM comeback campaign from around May 2022 and Msaka also stepped aside to pave way for APM, apparently, APM had kept some grudges.
This also means that Msaka must also worry about his future in DPP. Though he graciously stepped aside and remained silent to respect APM’s come back bidding, I doubt if he is truly forgiven for his earlier intention to succeed him.
Recently, not only did the DPP introduce another candidate to challenge Msaka’s Vice Presidency at the convention, but the party also has another MP aspirant to run against him at the primaries for the 2025 parliamentary elections. I confidently feel Msaka is being targeted without his knowledge. He will be isolated and they will frustrate him just like they did with Nankhumwa, Kabambe, and others to completely eliminate him from the succession plan. With the other strong aspirants out of the picture, Msaka remains the potential threat to those in DPP that, apparently, have a contrary leadership succession plan.
MCP must not be sleeping when DPP is make such strategic blunders. DPP can never win presidential elections without the Eastern Region even with the UTM, AFORD and UDF alliance. The Eastern bloc is DPP’s winning formula, and yet the party has no clear winning strategy to fortify the region.
You see, in times of war, the army general must deploy their seasoned battlefield commanders who are familiar with the terrain of the battlefield to lead the war. Ntenje is a field soldier and DPP’s best field commander for the East. Re-assigning him to merely serve as an advisor to the president when the party is going towards an election is like redeploying an experienced field commander from the battled field to the office during the time of war.
However, the DPP’s mistakes present opportunities for the MCP. Given the current weakened state of the DPP and the potential fragility of an alliance with UTM, AFORD, and UDF, the MCP’s strategy should, apart from destabilizing UTM, focus on penetrating the Eastern Region, the Lomwe belt, and the Lower Shire. The central region votes are already secure for them.
The MCP should immediately reach out to Ntenje and bring him on board. He, likely, has his lieutenants who would follow him and together they could do a great job for MCP in the region. And if I was MCP’s strategists, I could have dared to go even for Msaka himself to completely shake DPP in the East. Who knew Nankhumwa and Kabambe could leave DPP? Anyone can leave DPP because the party does not know how to keep its best.
For the South, MCP should get Nankhumwa to supplement efforts of Michael Usi and others. If they can pump enough campaign money into PDP, Nankhumwa could help to split DPP votes in the Lomwe-belt and some districts in the South including Blantyre. After all, I predict repeated high registration and voter apathy in the Lomwe- belt.
For the lower-shire, MCP just needs to give adequate support to Abida Mia, Owen Chomanika and others to split DPP votes further.
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