The National Planning Commission (NPC) has predicted that mild La Nina, which Malawi is expected to experience this year, could fuel an eight percent maize production jump compared to the 2022-23 growing season.
NPC unveiled the forecast when it presented a report on the Impact of the 2024-25 La Nina Phenomenon Forecast on Malawi’s Food Situation and Selected Macro-economic Conditions in Lilongwe on Friday.
The Department of Climate Change and Metrological Services has this year predicted mild La Nina which is characterised by normal to above normal rainfall.
NPC Research Manager Andrew Jamali said the forecast is on condition that farmers get the necessary inputs such as seed and fertiliser on time.
The prediction further says if the mild La Nina turns strong, then Malawi could have a 14 percent drop in maize production.
“Weak La Nina situation is likely to lead to a drop in the food price index from 95.404 in 2024 to 92.524 in 2025 due to increase in production.
“Strong La Nina characterised by drop in maize production is likely to lead to an escalation in the food price index from 95.404 in 2024 to 100.689 in 2025,” Jamali said.
On the impact of La Nina on economic inequality, Jamali said weak La Nina might lead to an improved Gini coefficient from 0.405 in 2024 to 0.4 in 2025.
The Gini coefficient measures income inequality in nations by determining how income is distributed across their populations.
According to Jamali, strong La Nina situation (floods) will worsen the Gini slightly from 0.405 in 2024 to 0.408 in 2025.
“Weak La Nina induced increase in maze yield in the 2024- 25 production season is likely to reduce by 6.3 percent headcount poverty ($2.15/day) from 66.9 percent in 2021-22 production season to 62.7 percent in the 2024-25,” he said.
International Food Policy Research Institute Research Fellow Jan Duchoslav said while it is encouraging that Malawi may experience good weather this growing season, there is need to consider other factors as well such as access to quality seeds and fertiliser.
“People are having hard times accessing inputs whether it is seed or fertiliser. Fertiliser is not available on the market in quantities that are needed both the subsidised one and the commercial fertiliser which is not being imported in sufficient quantities due to forex challenges.
“So even if the weather turns out to be good, that does not mean that the harvest for this year is going to be above average as the report has suggested.
“It is important to adjust the message by telling the people that weather is not everything. Inputs are also important,” Duchoslav said.
The report has since recommended that the Department of Social Protection in the Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs should adopt a multi-pronged approach in design and delivery of social protection interventions addressing food shortages and building household productive capacities to adapt to livelihood challenges in the season.
It has further recommended that the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Agriculture should ensure that food stocks are maintained at levels of sufficiency in the 2024-25, banking on purported likely increase in maize production in the 2024- 25 production season.
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